Arsenal seem to be at a fork in the road. After an overall disappointing year, missing out on the Premier League title in the dying stages to Manchester City and not making any major trophy finals, this next season could be important for the Mikel Arteta Project. 

Arteta took charge at Arsenal in December 2019, after spending time under Pep Guardiola at Manchester City. His tenure got off to a great start with an FA Cup win that season, but no trophies have followed since except a Community Shield victory at the opening of the next season. 

The most recent season started promisingly but ended in no trophies once again, missing out on the Premier League title after leading the majority of the year. They are obviously a team in transition and Arsenal has shown Arteta decent support in the transfer market. But this summer seems different. 

In the past three transfer windows, Arsenal’s average price per player was €24,000,000. Assuming Arsenal add the signings of Declan Rice and Jurrien Timber in addition to the already completed Kai Havertz signing, their spending will be pushed to €80,000,000 per player. The highest spend on a single player in the past three windows was €58,500,000 on Ben White. They’ve already topped this with the €70,000,000 for Havertz and will far exceed it with the €123,000,000 move for Rice. So are these two players worth it? What exactly can they bring to Arsenal’s squad to push them to the next level in the Premier League and beyond?

Kai Havertz

In 139 appearances, Havertz scored 32 goals and created 12 assists in his three seasons at Chelsea. Most importantly, two of those goals were game-winners in the 2021 Champions League final and 2022 Club World Cup final. Yet, he is overall considered a Premier League flop by most fans. 

The main question surrounding this move is where exactly Arsenal see him fitting into their team. It’s hard to see exactly where Arteta sees a hole in his starting eleven that Havertz can fill. Used mainly as a number 9 by Chelsea, he originally excelled as a 10 for Germany and his former team, Bayer Leverkusen. Arsenal, though, already have one of the league’s best number 10s in Martin Odegaard. Gabriel Jesus is also no slouch as a number 9. On either side of those two are great players in the making with Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. 

A reported €70,000,000 is a pretty significant outlay for someone who has no natural fit in his new team and has spent time in the Premier League without being entirely convincing. Averaging only 0.39 expected goals and 0.29 actual goals per 90 minutes in the Premier League isn’t actually eye-catching. In comparison, Martinelli, Saka, Odegaard, and Jesus were all in the 0.4-0.5 actual goals per 90. But is that entirely his fault? 

Havertz was never purchased to be a striker. Over 4 seasons at Bayer Leverkusen, Havertz played a total of 150 games, scoring 46 goals with a further 31 assists. Of his 150 games, 84 (56%) were played as a central attacking midfielder and 32 (21%) as a right winger. The next most common position was central midfield. Only nine games were played as a striker. Havertz has noted players like Toni Kroos, Zinedine Zidane and Andres Iniesta as his idols. All marvelous players and all midfielders. 

Havertz’s Niche

So why did Arteta make him a top priority for this summer? As a technically gifted and highly intelligent player, Havertz is best suited to a central attacking role surrounded by technically sound players that he can link up with. His understanding of the game means he plays best when he has the freedom to drift around the field, finding space in between the lines and then either creating quick chances for his teammates or making intelligent runs into the box. When asked to play as a forward or target player, he can become separated from his teammates, eliminating the advantage of his particular skill set. He excels in set-ups that count on intricate build-up play between closely placed teammates. Who does this sound like…Arsenal perhaps? 

Havertz exactly fits the mold of a current Arsenal player. His skills should lead him to fit in well with the technically gifted players that make up the squad. Players like Odegaard, Jesus, Martinelli and Saka should receive a huge boost from having someone as intelligent as Havertz slotting in next to them. Even if he doesn’t start every game, Arsenal are competing on four fronts next year so Havertz should still have a huge part to play in any success they have. Arteta seems to be learning another important lesson from his mentor in Pep: quality squad depth. 

Declan Rice

Declan Rice is having a stellar year. After captaining West Ham to their first European trophy in almost six decades, he was a highly coveted target for some of England’s biggest teams. What is it that made Arsenal willing to break from their customary cautious spending for him? 

Defense

The most obvious aspect of Rice’s game is his defensive abilities. In the 2022-23 season, he won possession 9.2 times per 90 minutes, for a total of 334 wins on the season. Manchester City’s Rodri was the only other player to break 300. He was also dribbled past less than many of the league’s top midfielders (Rodri, Gueye, Casemiro, Fabinho to name a few) and won more duels than all but four of the Premier League’s midfielders. Additionally, his “true” tackle win rate (a number derived from the total of tackles plus failed challenges plus fouls) was the highest of any Premier League player, despite attempting less than almost anyone else. 

Rice has always shown great intelligence in defense. He can often be seen staying calm in the face of opposing counterattacks. Rather than jumping out to meet players in a low-success position, he marshals players to areas with back-up and poor outlets, increasing his chance of a takeaway or forcing the opposing player into an error. 

But that isn’t to say he can’t play in a more pressing team, such as how Arsenal tends to play. Because of the systems he plays in for club and country, he is often asked to be more reserved. But we have seen flashes of his ability to anticipate plays and close the ground to force errors. Against Arsenal at the Emirates this season, Rice read a ball out from an Arsenal defender, covered the space to the receiving player and blocked a pass out wide in the first minute of the game. 

To see a bigger breakdown of his defensive (and later, attacking) abilities, see this article from Opta Analyst.

Attacking

I think it is safe to say that Rice’s defensive abilities are obvious. The area that most pundits will say he should, and can, improve in is his attacking. 

In the 2022-23 season, he only scored four goals. While this seems low, it is his best return in the English top flight. But he does seem to have more in him. Rice himself says he feels that he is starting to play as more of a box-to-box midfielder rather than limiting himself to a more defensive role. 

He had West Ham’s top involvement in attacking sequences (shots plus chances created plus build up to shot). He also came fourth in the Premier League for total passes. Wondering how effective all that passing was? See the first sentence of this paragraph. Additionally, he completed 88.1% of his passes, two-thirds of which were forward passes.

And you have to remember, all of this was done in a David Moyes system. Moyes is a fine coach, having shown over his years at Everton and West Ham that he knows how to coach at the top level. For goodness sake, he was Sir Alex Ferguson’s personal choice for his successor. But, he is most certainly not a possession-based coach, with only two teams having less average possession per game than West Ham this past season. 

Rice may also prove a shrewd addition when Arsenal face teams sat in a low block. Though not a gifted final pass maker, Rice does excel in progressing the ball, as well as looking to switch the field often. He was fourth-highest in progressive ball carries amongst defensive-minded players last season, with the average distance of his carries ranking highest. He also has the third-lowest passes per switch of play, indicating he can help Arsenal with their ball rotation, since they were the team with the highest passes per switch of play. 

Is He an Improvement?

From an attacking standpoint, even with only the four goals last season, Rice seems to be a positive attacking addition. Of Arsenal’s current squad, only Havertz and Odegaard scored more goals from a midfield position in the Premier League last season. Of midfielders that play in a similar role to Rice, Partey only scored three goals and Jorginho two. He also had a higher percentage of shots on target than both (22.9 v 14.3 & 11.1, respectively). 

Rice does look better from a creator rather than a goalscoring lense. He provided 100 shot-creating actions last season, with only Odegaard higher at 163. Rice does drop slightly in terms of goal-creating actions, with his total of six behind Jorginho (7) and Odegaard (17). He is, though, far superior to all of Arsenal’s other midfielders in terms of carries, progressive carries, and carries into the final third. His numbers drop significantly for carries into the penalty area, behind Odegaard and Havertz, but since both of them are much more attack-minded, this does make sense. 

His pass completion of 86.5% was second only to Partey, mainly due to a 93.2% medium pass completion. Long pass completion could use some help at only 68.8%. 

One has to imagine that his defensive contributions are the main reason Arsenal were so keen to win his signature. At 79 tackles made, and 38 tackles won, he ranks only second behind Partey (48.1% vs 57.1%). He successfully challenged 62% of the attackers he faced, which is more than Partey, and made more blocks and interceptions than any of the other Arsenal midfielders. He also made a further 58 clearances, with a final total of 334 recoveries, highest amongst the Arsenal midfielders. When you take into account that a Moyes team generally doesn’t press high and relies defensive discipline, these numbers make sense. They also suggest he could offer more after Arteta exerts his influence. 

Transfer Grade: A

Personally, I believe adding Rice and Havertz to an already impressive Arsenal team will lead to them again challenging for English dominance. Rice should provide further defensive stability in front of a defense that was a positive point until Saliba’s injury. He should also act as an important link between the defense and the attacking powerhouse ahead of him. Havertz should add quality and depth to an already stunning Arsenal attack. This would have been an easy A+, but the Rice price (I blame City) takes a little shine off.